South Sudan’s Three Year Anniversary: No Cause for Celebration

This week South Sudan celebrated its three year independence anniversary after voting to secede from Sudan on July 9, 2011. Though 99 percent of the population voted for secession, South Sudan’s transition to independence has been far from smooth. Struggling with economic collapse, civil war, and famine, South Sudan has faced a slow development trajectory and, in fact, has topped Foreign Policy’s 2014 Fragile States Index (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/fragile-states-2014), passing long-time number one Somalia.

Before secession the region of South Sudan contained almost seventy-five percent of Sudan’s oil reserves and prior to independence South Sudan was producing 350,000 barrels of oil per day. Following independence oil was expected to comprise almost 98% of the country’s economy. However, South Sudan, which under Sudan had never developed significant infrastructure, did not have the requisite pipelines or refineries to independently produce and sell their oil. Sudan charged exorbitant fees for use of these facilities attempting to preserve the scheme, which occurred when the countries were united, under which the north and south equally split the profits from the oil. To combat this price gauging South Sudan halted oil production in January 2012. Though this eventually led to negotiations with Sudan, it also resulted in enormous inflation and poverty within the country. South Sudan’s story is a classic example of a resource curse. While it does have oil, which sustained the region prior to secession, this reliance on oil halted the diversification of the economy which in turn led to extreme economic consequences when oil production was halted. Though South Sudan has begun producing oil again, the recent civil war threatens oil production. However, even if South Sudan is able to continue producing at the current rate despite the unrest, the oil reserves are not expected to last more than a few years. South Sudan is currently looking to diversity its economy, particularly by delving into the agricultural industry, but this remains an unattainable goal while civil war continues to plague the nation.

After gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan began to face tribal factions and ethnic divisions within the country. In December 2013 violence erupted between South Sudan’s two largest ethnic groups, the Dinkas and the Nuers, when Dinka president Salva Kiir accused his Nuer vice president, Riek Machar, of plotting a coup. Government troops split roughly along ethnic lines with Dinka soldiers supporting Kiir and the ruling party, the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and Nuer soldiers joining Machar and the Sudanese Peoples’ Liberation Army. Since then human rights abuses have been committed by both sides as the death toll mounts. The pattern of violence occurs in cycles of revenge killings as government and non-government forces alternate between control of large towns and while in power engage in ethnically motivated violence. Thousands of civilians have been senselessly murdered, one million citizens are internally displaced, and 400,000 people have fled to neighboring countries for refuge. The conflict is spreading across the country and is reaching major oil producing states, Unity and Upper Nile, where consequences could be dire if either party seizes control of the resource. The international community is urging South Sudan’s neighbors, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda, to negotiate a deal between the warring factions in an attempt to bring peace to the region.

To make the situation worse South Sudan is facing food shortages as forecasters are predicting below-average rainfall across the country. This is particularly problematic for displaced persons and poor communities in rebel-controlled areas.

South Sudan’s independence anniversary is sadly devoid of celebration. Instead of lauding the past the country needs to look ahead and implement plans for a stable future. For the international community South Sudan offers a lesson in the importance of a country’s establishing de facto governance before voting for succession – after all, simply adding another failed state to the mix does little to promote global development.

Sources: http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/qa-three-years-south-sudan-locked-cycle-violence-2014-07-08; http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28225098; http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2013/12/south-sudan

CONTACT E-MAIL: ikala@jd16.law.harvard.edu

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